International policy analysis future scenarios for the eurozone 15 perspectives on the euro crisis scenario team eurozone 2020 march 20 the eurozone is standing at a crossroads, facing the biggest challenges in its history. Kuchins, amy beavin, and anna bryndza1 in the mind of vladimir putin, russia is destined to be a world leader. Wild cards scenarios destabilization in moscow a third war in the caucasus. Shelf ultra deepwater deepwater extra heavy oil row onshore oil sands russia onshore 0 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1992 2002 2012 2022 2032 2042 2052 2062 2072 2082 2092 projections. Russian prospects political and economic scenarios. Russia s role in the world and in the postsoviet space, political economy, economics, the political system and political. Pdf some future scenarios of russian natural gas in europe. Russias outlook over the next five years will be dependent on two key variablesthe outlook for oil prices, and how well the government manages the countrys challenges. Collins, director, russia and eurasia program, carnegie endowment for international peace speakers. World scenario series scenarios for the russian federation. Russia in 2020 brings together leading experts from russia, the united states, and europe to analyze the possible scenarios for russia s development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead. Russia has been consistently surprised by the depth of transatlantic political unity in imposing and maintaining sanctions. The russia2020 team was particularly interested in the fascinating scenario analysis of russias future by daniel yergin and thane gustafson. Political liberalization and institutional reforms.
The complete analysis including detailed reports on all countries can be found on our website at. Scenario planning is a powerful tool precisely because the future is unpredictable and shaped by many interacting variables. Markets for agricultural commodities will remain tight through to 2020 and probably to 2030, with maize experiencing the largest. Shifting political and economic development tendencies in russia will indicate movement towards future. Scenarios for the future published on nov 21, 2011 while vladimir putin is unlikely to give up power any time soon, the political and economic system he created is incapable of. For this report, cbo examined two such possibilities. This large format, illustrated book is a unique attempt to visualize the future of astronautics through the eyes of russian space engineers and to describe that nations planning in space during the past several decades.
Golts chapter in this volume the armed forces in 2020. As vladimir putin prepares to return to the presidency in the 2012 elections, the prospects for russias future are unclear. Entitled scenarios for the future of technology and international development, the paper outlines a scenario where a pandemic has hit, and the governments of the world use it to expand their authority and increase their grip on power. Challenges and choices for europe global trends to 2030 towards a culture of preparedness and anticipation against this backdrop, the espas global trends to 2030. Directions of future developments in waste recycling. Scenarios for the future february 20 nikolay petrov, hse. Rockefeller foundation paper revealed plan to exploit pandemic.
Despite the growth trajectory registered since the early 2000s, the economic and political structure in russia is starting to show its limits, and the evolution registered since 2009 is a sign of it. Even in 1999, when western powersand most russians themselveshad written the country off as bankrupt and. As the crisis begins to recede and russia starts to chart a path forward, an international team of experts has been brought together to discuss the prospects and opportunities for russias future along key vectors, including. Learn about russias macroeconomic and geopolitical trajectory, basecaseupsidedownside scenarios for the market, the top 4 events to watch, and the most critical business strategies businesses need to implement to get the market right. Russias role in the world and in the postsoviet space, political economy, economics, the political system and political parties, elites, society and civil society, the state, regions and federalism, northern caucasus, and the military. Russia in 2020 scenarios for the future maria lipman nikolay. Putin starts reforming the system to minimize risks of transfer of power. Challenges and choices for europe report is a contribution to support policy and decisionmakers as they navigate the world into 2030. The present study aims to qualify these aspects of strategy 2020 with a newly developed russia klems dataset as well as the world klems data for other countries, available at it raises questions, what drives russian productivity growth and to what extent suggestions of strategy 2020 are relevant for growth enhancing. Russia in 2020 brings together leading experts to analyze the possible scenarios for russias development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead despite putins eminent return, the authors believe that the socalled putin era is over. In september 20, russia adopted a domestic greenhouse gas ghg emissions target that limits emissions to 75 per cent of the 1990 level by 2020. Scenarios for the future with kolya petrov and masha lipman. Using groundlaunched longrange weapons to address potential threats future conflicts with russia or china could involve scenarios in which the united states and its allies would have difficulty achieving air and naval superiority.
Russia and eurasia nic 2020 workshopbudapest, hungary april 2004. The future of oil and fiscal sustainability in the gcc region. Scenarios for the russian future 20th edition by m. Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years. Absent nonpharmaceutical interventions, these researchers estimate the death toll at 510,000 in britain and 2. Three scenarios for the future giovanni faleg annex abbreviations 148 notes on the contributors 150. Russia in 2020brings together leading experts to analyze the possible scenarios for russias development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead despite putins eminent return, the authors believe that the socalled putin era is over. But instead of dividing russiawatchers both at home and abroad along the usual lines, it has provoked a much more varied response. This is russian leader forever laughter vladimir putin. Four scenarios on the state of german russian relations in the year 2030. For example, development of new presorting and pretreatment concepts could improve both the quality and quantity of products. On one hand, there are forecasts concerning the possibility of the russian federations territorial breakdown as it was foreseen by a cia report on the other hand, some people, like sachs who is an outstanding economist, forecast that. Russia faces a range of challenges as it attempts to modernize and effectively use its power on the global stage.
The structure and trends of the past and future national ghg emissions are analysed based on the recent lower growth assumption of the national economy. Developments along the chosen uncertainty axes are dynamic over time. To put these historical pandemics in context, the scenarios contemplated byferguson et al2020 place covid19 as the most serious episode since the 1918 pandemic. Russias 2020 strategic economic goals and the role of international integration andrew c. Aggressive and recurrent suppression strategies would.
Although the authors of the paper try to claim they are just imagining not predicting the future, given the. At the aggregate level, there are significant scarcity challenges for a number of key natural resources with potential impact on us security. Russia 2025 offers a compelling insight into russias future by exploring thematic. Proposal for scenarios and policy packages in res2020. They represent possible futures based on exten sive analysis of trends and changes that may be. Nikolay petrov and maria lipman from the carnegie moscow center outlined scenarios for russias future development and discussed the russia 2020 project, which explores the countrys prospects over the coming decade. Despite its accusation of the regional states of upping the ante on a military solution to the crisis in syria, russia is ignoring the fact that its own military intervention means it seeks to settle the military conflict in favor of its ally. It uses scenarios to illustrate some of the many ways in which the drivers examined in the study e. Afghans decisions to move, these scenarios consider how displacement and humanitarian access within afghanistan might evolve during the second half of 2019 and throughout 2020, and the potential humanitarian consequences. So there is no way to summarize a 700pagelong project in 15 minutes, so ill focus. Management of the entire treatment chain calls for realtime monitoring methods integrated with online quality control. Scenarios for the future of technology and international. Russia in 2020 brings together leading experts to analyze the possible scenarios for russias development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead. Following a financial crisis in 2008, russias seizure of crimea in 2014 and concerns about the political integrity of the eu, europeans are having to accept the reality of a vastly deteriorating security.
On one hand, there are forecasts concerning the possibility of the russian federations territorial breakdown as it was foreseen by a cia report on the other hand, some people, like sachs who is an outstanding economist, forecast that russia belongs. Out of these drivers, the working group selected three critical uncertainties for russias future. Russias role in the world and in the postsoviet space, political economy, economics, the political system and political parties, elites, society. Available national programmes or funds that could provide support to russian horizon 2020 participants horizon 2020 is fully open to the participation of entities from across the world in all parts of the programme, and many topics are flagged as being specifically relevant for cooperation with partners from outside. The long and winding road to 2020 2 and a lack of agreement over the length of the second commitment period of the kyoto protocol not to mention the residual effect of the absence of several key parties, including canada, russia and japan, the negotiations could be in. Some future scenarios of russian natural gas in europe tatiana mitrova a, d, tim boersma b, anna galkina c a energy research institute, ras, moscow, russia b energy security and climate initiative, the brookings institution, washington, dc, usa c energy research institute, ras, moscow, russia d center on global energy policy, columbia university, usa article info. Despite putins eminent return, the authors believe that the socalled putin era is over. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the european and asian continents. Russias national security strategy to 2020 keir giles1 introduction the publication of russias latest national security strategy in may 2009 has given rise to a wide range of commentary and interpretation. Scenarios for july 2019 december 2020 these scenarios are not attempts to predict the future. Forecasts concerning the future of russia are widely divergent which is alarming and should receive our immediate attention.
The future of transatlantic sanctions on russia center. The future of russia divergent scenarios for 202050. The reports major conclusions must be drawn by the reader himself. Clifford gaddy, senior fellow, center on the united states and europe, brookings sam greene. Russia in 2020, also available in russian, brings together leading experts from russia, the united states, and europe to analyze the possible scenarios for russias development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead. And its my great pleasure to welcome all of you this afternoon to an event that were very proud to host. Russias view of the scenarios of the syrian crisis reveals contradictions in the russian position. Mncs need to build flexible scenarios into their longrange russia plans that consider. Scenarios and sticking points under the durban platform. A detailed overview of the current and future business environment in russia. Of course, these scenarios illustrate just a few of the possible futures that may. Options for fielding groundlaunched longrange missiles.
Russian futures european union institute for security studies. The confidentiality issues concerning this thesis were agreed on with the student, jamk university of applied sciences and ikea shopping centres russia. Government printing office gpo, superintendent of documents, po box 391954. Implications for the united states executive summary the bottom line.
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